Bet Insurance and Hedge Calculator
"Insuring a bet" can mean three different things: hedging with your own stake on the opposite outcome, paying the bookmaker for bet insurance, or a first-bet offer that refunds a losing stake. This bet insurance calculator covers all three: how much to stake on the opposite outcome, what paid insurance is really worth, and what a promised refund turns into.
None of them creates profit out of thin air: a hedge redistributes the result between scenarios, paid insurance is almost always priced above its fair value, and a refunded first bet usually arrives as a bonus rather than cash.
Work out the cost of insuring a bet
Choose a mode. A hedge needs the stake and odds of the original bet plus the odds of the opposite outcome; paid insurance and the promo also need the insurance price or the refund type.
Inputs
Results update automatically. Decimals can use a point or a comma, and thousands separators are accepted. For an accumulator, enter the total odds of the slip as the original odds and, if such a market exists, the odds that the slip loses as the opposite odds.
Result
Fill in the fields and the result will appear automatically.
What bet insurance means: three versions
In searches and in bookmakers' terms the same word covers different mechanics. Before calculating anything, work out which one you are dealing with.
| Meaning | How it works | Who pays for the cover | What the calculator shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hedge bet | You stake your own money on the opposite outcome of a bet that is already open. | You, with part of the potential winnings. | The hedge stake for an equal result or for getting the original stake back. |
| Paid bet insurance | For a fixed fee, the bookmaker promises to refund the stake if the bet loses. | You, through an insurance price that is usually above fair value. | The fair price based on the probability of losing, and the overpayment. |
| "Risk-free" first bet offer | A new customer gets a losing first bet refunded, usually as a free bet, less often as cash. | The bookmaker, counting on further play and on the refund being wagered. | The expected value of the refund, depending on how it is paid. |
The first meaning is something the bettor does; the second and third are operator offers. Terms for paid insurance and promotions vary between bookmakers: the refund type, the maximum amount, the minimum odds and the expiry date all come from the rules of the specific offer. Hedging is also worth comparing with cashing out before you decide.
How bet insurance is calculated
A hedge uses four formulas; paid insurance and the offer are valued through the probability of losing with the margin removed.
Return of the original bet = stake × k₁Equal result: hedge = return / k₂Recover the original stake: hedge = stake / (k₂ − 1)Minimum k₂ to break even = k₁ / (k₁ − 1)Probability of losing, margin removed: q = (1 / k₂) / (1 / k₁ + 1 / k₂)Fair insurance price = amount insured × qOffer value = stake × q × refund-type factorThe higher the opposite odds, the cheaper the hedge. If k₂ is below the threshold, the equal-result mode loses money in both scenarios, and the calculator shows this rather than hiding it. The refund-type factor is 1 for cash and (k − 1) / k for a free bet with the stake not returned, where k is the odds you will place the bonus bet at; the free bet calculator goes into this in more detail.
Dividing by the sum of the inverse odds strips the bookmaker's margin out of the probability: at 2.50 and 1.80 the implied probabilities add up to 95.56%, and the fair probability that the original bet loses is 58.14%, not 55.56%.
Worked example
An original bet of 100 USDT at 2.50 (return 250), opposite odds 1.80. The break-even minimum for k₂ here is 1.67, so there is some headroom.
| Mode | Hedge stake | Original bet wins | Hedge wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equal result | 138.89 (250 / 1.80) | +11.11 | +11.11 |
| Recover the original stake | 125.00 (100 / 0.80) | +25.00 | 0.00 |
| No cover | — | +150.00 | −100.00 |
Both cover modes need a stake larger than the original bet, which is normal when the opposite odds are fairly short. The question is never "can I protect this bet?" but how much the protection costs in money and in lost profit.
The same bet with paid insurance and with the offer
| Option | Calculation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Paid insurance: 70 USDT to refund 100 | Fair price 100 × 58.14% = 58.14; a 125 hedge for stake recovery is lost with a probability of 41.86%: expected cost 52.33 | Overpayment 11.86, and the hedge is 17.67 cheaper |
| Paid insurance: 50 USDT to refund 100 | Fair price 58.14, expected cost of the hedge 52.33 | Cheaper than both benchmarks: one of the rare cases when the button is the better deal |
| Offer: cash refund | 100 × 58.14% × 1 | Expected value 58.14, or 58.14% of the stake |
| Offer: free bet refund, used at 2.50 | 100 × 58.14% × 0.60 | Expected value 34.88, or 34.88% of the stake |
The prices of 70 and 50 for a 100 refund are illustrations only: the real price of paid insurance is set by the bookmaker on the bet slip and changes from event to event. The calculation shows what to compare it with, not what it usually is.
How to read the result
Equal result
The outcome is the same whatever happens. If k₂ is below the minimum threshold, both scenarios are negative and the calculator flags it.
Recover the original stake
If the opposite outcome wins, you break even; if the original bet wins, your profit is lower than without cover.
Fair price
What the insurance would cost with no margin. Anything the bookmaker charges above it is overpayment; the "same cover with a hedge" line shows the alternative.
Offer value
The refund only applies if the bet loses, so its expected value is the stake multiplied by the probability of losing. A free bet also loses its non-returned stake.
When to open this calculator
- the last leg of an accumulator is still risky and you need the exact size of the cover;
- the price of an open bet has moved a lot and you are deciding between hedging and waiting;
- the bookmaker offers a cash out: before accepting, compare it with hedging the bet yourself and with the difference in returns;
- an insurance button has appeared on the bet slip: check its price against the fair one before you press it;
- a new-customer offer promises to "insure your first bet": work out what it is worth in cash when the refund comes as a free bet;
- you want to cover a bet out of nerves: the numbers quickly show what peace of mind costs.
Related tools
Accumulator calculator
Total odds, returns and the probability of a multi-selection bet coming in.
Odds to probability
Implied probability, margin and fair odds for two or three outcomes.
All tools
The calculator hub: markets, odds, bankroll, bonuses and limits.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean to insure a bet?
Among bettors, it means staking your own money on the opposite outcome so that you lose less, or break even, whatever happens. In a bookmaker's interface, it means paying a fixed fee to have the stake refunded if the bet loses. In new-customer offers, it means getting a losing first bet back, usually as a free bet. The mechanics differ, but they share one thing: cover always costs money or part of the winnings.
What are the opposite odds?
The odds of an outcome that offsets the risk of the original bet: for a team to win, that is "does not win" (X2 or 12 against it). If a market only partly offsets the risk, the formulas give the wrong answer.
Why does the profit on the original bet fall after hedging?
If the original bet wins, the hedge stake is lost and comes off the total. In the example above, profit drops from 150 to 25 in stake-recovery mode, and that is the price of the cover.
What are the minimum opposite odds?
The threshold k₁ / (k₁ − 1): with the second odds exactly at this level, the equal-result mode returns zero in both scenarios; below it, a loss is guaranteed. For k₁ = 2.50 the threshold is 1.67.
Is paid bet insurance from a bookmaker worth it?
As a rule, no: the price includes the operator's margin, like any odds. Compare it with the fair price in the calculator and with the expected cost of a hedge. If the price is below both, the offer is rare and good value; if it is above, you are paying for the convenience of a single button.
What is a "risk-free" first bet offer worth?
Its expected value is the stake multiplied by the probability of losing and, for a free bet refund, also by the share of face value that the free bet actually returns. For a 100 bet at 2.50 refunded as a free bet, that is about 35, not the 100 shown on the banner.
How do I calculate cover for an accumulator?
Enter the total odds of the slip as the original odds: the maths is no different from a single bet. The "acca example" preset shows the 2.52 / 2.85 case.
Will the calculator tell me whether to hedge?
No. It shows the cost of each option in money. The decision depends on how you rate the risk, on your bankroll and on the cash out alternative.